When thinking about the Diplomacy board you may think of dividing it into zones. A traditional division is to split the board into two parts: the Northern (or Western) Triangle, featuring England, France and Germany, and the Southern (Eastern) Triangle of Russia, Austria-Hungary and Turkey.
Personally, though, I prefer to narrow down the areas of the board and consider the possibilities there. I therefore have a number of 'theatres' that I consider, and the Black Sea Theatre is one of them.
Turkey starts with a fleet in Ankara. This is a frustrating position for the player: often, Turkey wants to get her fleet out into the Mediterranean but, to do that, she has to move F(Ank)-Con then F(Con)-AEG. It takes a whole year for Turkey to get where she would like her fleet to be.
Now, if that's the case, fair enough. That's how long it takes so Turkey needs to deal with that. She has to ensure the Black Sea is neutral and the only way to do so is to agree a DMZ (demilitarised zone) in the Black Sea with Russia. But can she trust Russia to stick to this agreement?
Well, let's assume Russia doesn't stick to it. What happens then?
This shows what is likely to happen. Russia has a fleet in Black Sea (oh, no!!!), and armies in Sevastopol and Ukraine - S01 orders of A(Mos)-Sev, A(War)-Ukr). Turkey has ordered A(Con)-Bul, F(Ank)-Con and either A(Smy)-Ank or -Arm.
What should Turkey be worried about? The chances are Russia is going to grab Rumania. If Austria has ordered A(Bud)-Rum, Russia is going to need two units - at least - to try to take Rumania. She isn't pressuring Austria-Hungary by having an army in Galicia, and it would take Turkey and Austria working together to defend an Austrian army in Rumania.
(Actually, a very strong opening for Austria is involves A(Bud)-Rum, A(Vie)-Gal; if they both work, Russia is in real problems. But that's for a discussion on Austrian openings and Galicia.)
Turkey has the option of A(Smy)-Arm or -Ank. There's not much difference between the two: an army in Armenia is more aggressive towards Russia as it directly threatens Sevastopol, meaning it can cut support from Sevastopol for the F01 order A(Ukr)-Rum or F(BLA)-Rum. Sevastopol is unlikely to fall in this scenario but Arm-Sev keeps Russia honest.
A(Smy)-Ank is more defensive. Russia is under no threat with this move (which might be a warning to Austria!) and F01 orders of A(Ank)-Con and A(Bul)-Con defends both Constantinople and Ankara. This might well help Austria as it superficially suggests Turkey doesn't completely trust Russia. This set of Fall 1901 orders also allows F(Con)-AEG.
From this point of view, Russia getting into the Black Sea doesn't bother Turkey; however, if Turkey orders A(Smy)-Arm then she has to worry which way Russia will go. Swapping Ankara for Sevastopol isn't great for Turkey.
The argument, then, is really what Turkey orders for her otherwise almost useless army in Smyrna. If she moves it to Armenia, she is likely to be an aggressive player, while A(Smy)-Ank suggests she is defensive. Useful for any other player on the board who bothers to take notice.
Let's assume Turkey gets into the Black Sea. If that's the case, Russia has probably ordered F(Sev)-Rum. Of course, Russia might have ordered F(Sev)-Arm, bouncing Turkey's order of A(Smy)-Arm. Russia, in this situation (see image below) will have been hoping that Turkey will have ordered her Smyrna army anywhere other than Armenia.
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| Turkey in the Black Sea Zone |
Now, if that's the case, fair enough. That's how long it takes so Turkey needs to deal with that. She has to ensure the Black Sea is neutral and the only way to do so is to agree a DMZ (demilitarised zone) in the Black Sea with Russia. But can she trust Russia to stick to this agreement?
Well, let's assume Russia doesn't stick to it. What happens then?
Russia in the Black Sea
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| Russia in Black Sea |
What should Turkey be worried about? The chances are Russia is going to grab Rumania. If Austria has ordered A(Bud)-Rum, Russia is going to need two units - at least - to try to take Rumania. She isn't pressuring Austria-Hungary by having an army in Galicia, and it would take Turkey and Austria working together to defend an Austrian army in Rumania.
(Actually, a very strong opening for Austria is involves A(Bud)-Rum, A(Vie)-Gal; if they both work, Russia is in real problems. But that's for a discussion on Austrian openings and Galicia.)
Turkey has the option of A(Smy)-Arm or -Ank. There's not much difference between the two: an army in Armenia is more aggressive towards Russia as it directly threatens Sevastopol, meaning it can cut support from Sevastopol for the F01 order A(Ukr)-Rum or F(BLA)-Rum. Sevastopol is unlikely to fall in this scenario but Arm-Sev keeps Russia honest.
A(Smy)-Ank is more defensive. Russia is under no threat with this move (which might be a warning to Austria!) and F01 orders of A(Ank)-Con and A(Bul)-Con defends both Constantinople and Ankara. This might well help Austria as it superficially suggests Turkey doesn't completely trust Russia. This set of Fall 1901 orders also allows F(Con)-AEG.
From this point of view, Russia getting into the Black Sea doesn't bother Turkey; however, if Turkey orders A(Smy)-Arm then she has to worry which way Russia will go. Swapping Ankara for Sevastopol isn't great for Turkey.
The argument, then, is really what Turkey orders for her otherwise almost useless army in Smyrna. If she moves it to Armenia, she is likely to be an aggressive player, while A(Smy)-Ank suggests she is defensive. Useful for any other player on the board who bothers to take notice.
Turkey in the Black Sea and Armenia
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| Turkey in Black Sea and Armenia |
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| Armenian Bounce |
Defensively, this is better for Russia. It prevents Turkey getting Sevastopol; there's no threat whatsoever, unless Russia needs her fleet to take Rumania in F02. For Turkey, it's pointless: if he feels Russia is likely to order Sev-Arm, he's better off moving Smy-Ank.
In short, this should never happen. Russia, even if Sev-Arm works, isn't going to get Ankara; it's just too easy for Turkey to defend. The most it does is defend Armenia; that can be achieved using her armies.
This means that the first map in this section, with Turkey occupying Armenia and the Black Sea, is much more likely to happen. From there, that army can be supported by F(BLA) to Sevastopol or be convoyed by F(BLA) to Rumania, combined with A(Bul) S Arm-Rum.
Let's look at this map:
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| Fall 1901: F(BLA) C Arm-Rum, A(Bul) S Arm-Rum |
For Russia to defend this she needs an army in Sevastopol, Ukraine or Galicia... and for Austria not to support Turkey's effort.
In fact, if Turkey can get her army into Armenia and her fleet into the Black Sea, Russia has problems. Russia has to consider whether she should defend Sevastopol or Rumania. And, if Austria has a unit bordering Rumania (which she will - she will have an army in Galicia and/or Serbia), then Russia faces failure to capture Rumania. Should Turkey order his army in Armenia to Rumania, she can simply use her fleet in the Black Sea to support A(Bul)-Rum.
The alternative, A(Bul) S BLA-Rum, is less useful for Turkey, unless he is prepared to build a second fleet in Ankara or Constantinople. If he builds in Ankara, Russia is under huge pressure; S02 will include the order F(Ank)-BLA, which Russia won't be able to prevent. If he builds in Constantinople, then he is either relying on his armies to capture Sevastopol (which is probably best anyway), and moving F(Con)-AEG in a belated attempt to get involved in the Med.
In short, Spring 01 orders of F(Ank)-BLA and A(Smy)-Arm is very anti-Russian. If it is a huge bluff, if Russia and Turkey are in alliance, it is massively wasteful. There is no reason for Turkey to order this if he's allied to Russia.
Turkey in Black Sea and Constantinople
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| Turkey in Black Sea and Constantinople |
In some ways, this is no less threatening to Russia. The Black Sea fleet can still convoy the Constantinople army to Sevastopol or Rumania. However, Sevastopol is - if only superficially - under less of a threat than if Turkey had ordered Smy-Arm. But, unless Turkey is being unusually tricksy, she's not aiming for that; more likely is Con-Rum or Con-Bul.
Turkey ordering F(BLA) C Con-Rum, A(Bul) S Con-Rum is possible. She's gambling on Austrian support, of course, but it's - perhaps - more disguised than having an army in Armenia. If she orders Con-Bul, she could well be trying F(BLA) S Bul-Rum, again with Austrian support to succeed, and it really doesn't matter which way she goes.
Of course, Turkey may simply be looking to move A(Bul)-Gre with A(Con)-Bul to fill in, with F(BLA) supporting the Con-Bul move to force its success (assuming Bul-Gre doesn't result in a stand-off). The fleet in the Black Sea is simply there to give Russia some cause for concern or to ensure Turkey is in a stronger position against Russia.
Consequences
Turkey moving to the Black Sea is a strong move, if it succeeds. We've seen above that, simply to prevent Russia from moving F(Sev)-BLA, it is unnecessary. Should Russia get there, she's a problem for Turkey; rather, a distraction. Turkey should have no problems defending her SCs from this 'threat'.
Turkey being in the Black Sea is, then, a signal that she's antagonistic towards Russia (unless Turkey is simply a weak player who believes the Black Sea needs defending at all costs). Either she doesn't trust Russia or she's going to attack her.
Russia, of course, knows this. Russia shouldn't be agreeing to Ank-BLA as some complex bluff. A Turkey who wants to persuade the rest of the board that she's not allied with Russia won't want to delay her fleet presence in the Med by doing this. Much better to allow Sev-BLA which means that Russia runs the risk of not gaining Rumania if she attacks Turkey.
The major consequence of F(Ank)-BLA is the gamble that Turkey will be able to get into the Med in time to prevent the loss of influence there. She will, then, need to make gains in the Balkans or Russia if she sacrifices a Mediterranean presence in favour of gaining the Black Sea.
Heathley Baines (Nibbler)
Editor
The Series "The Black Sea Theatre"
Part 1: "Introduction"
Part 2: "The Super Fleet"
Part 3: "Turkey"
Part 4: "Russia"
Part 5: "Austria Goes Balkans"
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