When thinking about the Diplomacy board you may think of dividing it into zones. A traditional division is to split the board into two parts: the Northern (or Western) Triangle, featuring England, France and Germany, and the Southern (Eastern) Triangle of Russia, Austria-Hungary and Turkey.
Personally, though, I prefer to narrow down the areas of the board and consider the possibilities there. I therefore have a number of 'theatres' that I consider, and the Black Sea Theatre is one of them.
Around the Black Sea theatre, Russia looks like this. Her southern fleet, in Sevastopol, is the one unit she has that can affect the Black Sea itself, but every other unit on this map (as well as the unseen Turkish army in Smyrna, south of both Constantinople and Ankara) affects the theatre for Russia to a greater or lesser extent.
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| Russia and the Black Sea |
Russia's Fleet in Rumania
Russia's southern fleet has four options: it can move to Rumania, the Black Sea or Armenia, and it can hold in Sevastopol. In fairness, even defensively, holding is pointless, so I'm not going to consider that at all.
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| Basic Position |
Here's the likely position of Russia's fleet, Austria-Hungary's army that started in Budapest, and Turkey's army that started in Constantinople, if Russia starts with a successful order of F(Sev)-Rum. Nice enough. But what about the other units?
Let's add a possible nightmare for Russia:
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| Northern Opening & Sev-Rum |
Russia has started with a northern opening, splitting her units by pushing her A(Mos)-StP. Turkey is being aggressive with F(Ank)-BLA and A(Smy)-Arm. Austria has opened equally aggressively with A(Bud)-Ser and A(Vie)-Gal. Russia ordered A(War)-Ukr, where it is able to defend Warsaw, Rumania or Sevastopol.
The problem is that, with this set of moves, even if Turkey and Austria weren't in alliance against Russia before, there is every reason for them to form such an agreement now! If Austria orders A(Gal)-Ukr, Turkey orders A(Arm) S BLA-Sev, and the two can agree on A(Ser) S Bul-Rum, Russia loses Rumania and - probably - Sevastopol.
This means that, should Russia use a northern opening, ordering F(Sev)-Rum is a disaster waiting to happen. She needs Galicia and the Black Sea both to be neutral. In the Balkan and the Black Sea theatres she needs this:
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| Southern Opening & Sev-Rum |
The Austrian Viennese army can be anywhere, even Budapest, and the position is much better for Russia.
Still, Russia is gambling on a non-aggressive Turkey. Even with three Russian units in the south, Turkey can argue for an alliance with Austria, especially if Austria also has an army in Budapest - A(Vie)-Bud. In fairness, though, if Austria did open with Vie-Bud, Russia would be in trouble. At least with no Austrian in Budapest, which is likely, Russia has a chance of defending this position.
Even so, Sev-Rum in S01 is risky. Russia can gain Rumania, but she really needs Turkey to stay out of the Black Sea and Armenia; this is a big ask.
Russia in the Black Sea
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| Russia takes the Black Sea |
This position is much more favourable, albeit without the missing Austrian army that starts in Vienna and the Turkish army that starts in Smyrna. We can make it worse for Russia:
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| Northern Opening & Russia in Black Sea |
Here, Russia has opened A(Mos)-StP again, with an aggressive Austria, and Turkey ordering A(Smy)-Arm. Russia is going to struggle to get Rumania (Austria opening Vie-Bud is no better from this point of view, although Warsaw isn't under threat with such an order) but, at least, Sevastopol is defensible. Again, though, A(Mos)-Sev is much better.
Actually, Russia is better with either A(War)-Gal and A(Vie)-Gal along with A(Mos)-Sev, or simply an additional order of A(Mos)-Sev. Let's look at this latter version:
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| Southern Opening & Russia in Black Sea |
It would be a gamble if Russia went for Rumania with two or three or her units. Austria using Serbia and Galicia to try for Rumania on her own means Russia has to use two units to prevent this, three to overcome it; and that Turkish army in Armenia is still a threat.
So, surely, Russia needs to prevent Turkey's order A(Smy)-Arm?
Russia in Armenia
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| Russia in Armenia |
On the face of it, this isn't a terrible position. If Russia orders F(Sev)-Arm she has to open with a southern opening. But the consequence of this is Turkey sees a Russian unit invading, with Ankara threatened - easily defended but threatened. It's a distraction, nothing more, but it isn't going to help Russia. A better position is the following:
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| Bounce in Armenia |
Although A(Mos)-Sev fails, this gives Russia the chance of taking Rumania and defending Warsaw. Ideal, almost, even with aggressive neighbours! But, well, the problem is that it means Turkey has to order A(Smy)-Arm... and imagine a Turkish fleet in the Black Sea; suddenly, Turkey and Austria have a good reason to ally again, with Rumania much more vulnerable to a combined Austro-Turkish attack.
The Defensive Dilemma
Russia's problem is that she can't defend everywhere and realistically hope to gain Rumania. It should be obvious that, unlike for Turkey, Galicia is an important space for Russia, even in the Black Sea theatre. She can't really afford to let Austria in - and Austria really doesn't want Russia there.
This should help Russia, though. Austria may well wish to keep out of Galicia, and Russia doesn't really need to be there unless she's fairly certain of a Turkish alliance and wants to attack Austria. This ought to mean that Austria and Russia can reach agreement to keep Galicia a DMZ (demilitarised zone).
This potentially leaves Russia to worry about Armenia and the Black Sea. We've seen that, for Turkey, gaining the Black Sea is a good move if she is attacking Russia. For Russia, though, getting into the Black Sea is of little advantage - at this stage - in attacking Turkey.
Armenia is similar. Russia moving Sev-Arm is usually an error; Turkey moving Smy-Arm is dangerous for Russia. Yet Russia can allow this if she opens with her two armies moving south.
The upshot of this is that Turkey can afford to allow Russia into the Black Sea. For Russia, this means that she has a chance to persuade Turkey to let her move there. And, if this agreement means that Russia has to promise that A(Mos)-Sev isn't ordered, then Russia can promise this - and renege because, at that point, Turkey can do nothing about it.
A Neutral Black Sea?
This is also a good option for Russia. If she and Turkey can agree to leave the Black Sea neutral, Turkey can move towards the Med and Russia can - probably - move into Rumania.
A stand-off in the Black Sea, while certain to keep the space empty, means Russia has to order A(War)-Gal and A(Mos)-Ukr to guarantee taking Rumania... which upsets Austria-Hungary.
Given all this, Russia is probably best to try and get into the Black Sea. A reasonable Turkey won't be overly concerned about this (unless he's planning on attacking Russia!) and, at worst, there's a bounce. Although I've talked a lot about the potential of an Austro-Turkish alliance, this is a comparatively unusual unless Russia makes herself a tempting target.
Heathley Baines (Nibbler)
Editor
The Series "The Black Sea Theatre"
Part 1: "Introduction"
Part 2: "The Super Fleet"
Part 3: "Turkey"
Part 4: "Russia"
Part 5: "Austria Goes Balkans"
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